Performance of the Opinion Polls in the 2016 Local and Devolved Elections

The following tables compare the results of opinion polls of voting intentions for the elections that were held on May 5th in London, Scotland and Wales with the final outcome. A poll is included if its fieldwork was conducted wholly or mostly in the seven days before polling day (May 5th), and it was the final poll published by the pollster concerned. (This is a slightly longer period than is normally used in BPC reports on the performance of the polls in general elections — the period has been lengthened because there were very few polls conducted in the last few days.)

It should be noted that all of these polls were conducted online, with the exception of the Survation poll in Scotland, which was conducted by telephone.

London Mayor 1st Preference Vote

Company / Fieldwork Dates Con Lab LibDem UKIP Green Other
Opinium 26.4–1.5.16 35 48 4 5 5 3
TNS 26.4–3.5.16 33 45 7 5 4 5
ComRes 28.4–3.5.16 36 45 6 4 6 3
YouGov 2–4.5.16 32 43 6 7 7 5
RESULT 35 44 5 4 6 7

London Mayor After Redistribution of 2nd Preferences

Company / Fieldwork Dates Con Lab
Opinium 26.4–1.5.16 43 57
TNS 26.4–3.5.16 43 57
ComRes 28.4–3.5.16 44 56
YouGov 2–4.5.16 43 57
RESULT 43 57

London Assembly — Constituency Vote

Company / Fieldwork Dates Con Lab LibDem UKIP Green Other
YouGov 2–4.5.16 30 44 7 11 7 1
RESULT 31 42 8 8 9 3

London Assembly — List Vote

Company / Fieldwork Dates Con Lab LibDem UKIP Green Other
YouGov 2–4.5.16 29 39 8 11 9 5
RESULT 29 40 6 8 8 3

Scotland — Constituency Vote

Company / Fieldwork Dates Con Lab LibDem SNP Green Other
Survation 1–2.5.16 19 21 7 49 5
YouGov 2–4.5.16 19 22 7 48 4
RESULT 22 23 8 47 1

Scotland — List Vote

Company / Fieldwork Dates Con Lab LibDem SNP Green Other
Survation 1–2.5.16 20 19 8 43 7 4
YouGov 2–4.5.16 20 19 6 41 9 5
RESULT 23 19 5 42 7 4

Wales — Constituency Vote

Company / Fieldwork Dates Con Lab LibDem PC UKIP Other
YouGov 2–4.5.16 21 33 8 19 16 4
RESULT 21 35 8 21 12 3

Wales — List Vote

Company / Fieldwork Dates Con Lab LibDem PC UKIP Other
YouGov 5.5.16 20 31 6 20 16 8
RESULT 19 31 6 21 13 3

YouGov also conducted on polling day an exercise in which it recontacted a sample of those who it had interviewed previously in order to ascertain how they had or intended to vote. This produced the same result for the Constituency vote, and very similar figures for the list vote: Con 19%, Lab 30% LibDem 6%, PC 21%, UKIP 16% and other 8%.