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British Polling Council
British Polling Council

Press Releases By The BPC

Accuracy of the Final Polls

8th May 2010

The table below compares the final estimates of the outcome of the General Election made by companies that are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) with the actual result across Great Britain as a whole.

While not proving as accurate as the 2005 polls, which were the most accurate predictions ever made of the outcome of a British general election, the polls nevertheless told the main story of the 2010 election — that the Conservatives had established a clear lead. All but one of the nine pollsters came within 2% of the Conservative share, and five were within 1%.

The tendency at past elections for polls to overestimate Labour came to an abrupt end, with every pollster underestimating the Labour share of the vote, though all but one were within 3%. However, every pollster overestimated the Liberal Democrat share of the vote.

 ConLabLibDemOtherAverage Error
Angus Reid362429113.25
Com Res37282872.25
Ipsos MORI36292781.75
TNS BMRB332729113.25
Actual Result37302410 

NOTE. The table includes the final poll conducted by each company where that poll was conducted either wholly or partly on or after Monday 3rd May. Average error is the average of the difference between the poll result and the actual result across all four estimates.

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