Event: British Polling Lessons from 2024

A public event, organised by the BPC, in association with the Market Research Society, was held on 6^th May 2025 to reflect on the lessons learned to date. In a series of talks, representatives of BPC member organisations presented a synthesis of the analysis conducted to date. The event also provided an opportunity for representatives of the academic, media and political communities to share their perspectives. Download the presentations here (23MB pptx).

Preliminary Findings from BPC members

In the section below, BPC member organisations share their early research findings on the experience of 2024 and what it means for future polling practice. Some members share data and/or further information about their existing and ongoing research, and links can be found in their individual submissions. 

We will update this page as additional research has taken place and all post-election data (including from the random probability British Election Study) are available.

In the challenging context of predicting electoral outcomes, BMG Research is delighted to be among the most accurate pollsters for the 2024 General Election.

Professor Will Jennings’ analysis, highlights our performance as one of the most accurate in terms of total absolute error.

Improving polling accuracy report

Overall the industry polling, including those polls conducted by Electoral Calculus and Find Out Now, overestimated the Labour lead at the 2024 general election.

Polling errors in 2024

Following the election Find Out Now has conducted an internal investigation into the likely cause of election polling error (in addition to the based on polling from our panel).

Find Out Now and the 2024 General Election

We recently completed our internal review of our polling performance and methodological approaches for the 2024 UK general election, analysing both traditional and MRP polling. We are pleased to now be able to present the findings publicly.

Review into our performance at the 2024 UK general election.

Ipsos UK 2024 Election Review Initial Conclusions (ppt)

Over the last few months, we have looked into where we think our General Election polling went well, and the areas we need to improve if we want to continue to make our polling as accurate as possible…

Our 2024 Election Polling: Lessons Learned

Survation’s analysis on 2024 lessons could be included in our round up of evidence.

Review of Survation’s 2024 General Election Telephone Polling (pdf)

2024 General Election MRP Model Post-mortem (pdf)

2024 General Election Cati Recontacts Tables (xls)

EPOP 2024 Luke Taylor voter age profile 2024 (pdf 282kb)

Reflections on 2024 General Election Political Polling (pdf 361kb)

YouGov’s model was the most accurate in terms of seats and the second most accurate for vote share – but there are ways we could have been more accurate still

A summary of YouGov’s review into our 2024 general election performance

The post The 2024 General Election appeared first on British Polling Council.

As the table below shows, the long-term tendency for the final polls to over-state Labour and under-state Conservative support remains in play. 

For the each of the remaining parties, the average error across the polling organisations are within 2 points.

MRP overview

This election saw the publication of a series of seat projections based on MRP analysis techniques. Here we set out the final projections released by BPC members, covering all those using survey data with fieldwork running into the last five days of the campaign.

The post The Performance of the Polls in the 2024 General Election appeared first on British Polling Council.

5^th June 2024, Wolfson Theatre, LSE (Cheng Kin Ku Building: CKK location here)

DOWNLOAD THE PRESENTATIONS HERE

AGENDA
Event Chair: Patrick Sturgis, LSE

2.00: INTRODUCTION

Welcome from the Chair: Patrick Sturgis,
LSE Setting the Scene: Jane Green, BPC President

2.20: PART ONE: WHERE ARE WE NOW?

Chaired by Sara Hobolt, LSE
Can we Trust the Polls? Will Jennings, Southampton/Sky
Can we use random sampling methods for polling? Joel Wiliams, Verian
Scotland: John Curtice, University of Strathclyde
What do past trends tell us about the present? Holly Day, Ipsos

3.10: Questions to the Panel

3.30: Break

4.00: PART TWO: ROUNTABLE ON MRP

Chaired by Jane Green, BPC President
Projecting Seats – an MRP Roundtable: Damian Lyons-Lowe, Survation; Martin Baxter, Electoral Calculus; Callum Hunter, JL Partners; Patrick English, YouGov

4.45: PART THREE: WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?

Chaired by Patrick Sturgis, LSE
What about the Don’t Knows? Paula Surridge, University of Bristol
Tactical Voting: Stephen Fisher, University of Oxford
What Might Change? Luke Tryl, More in Common
Election Night and The Exit Poll: Jouni Kuha, LSE

5.30: Questions to Panel & closing comments by Patrick Sturgis and Jane Green

From 6.00: Reception

The post Shedding Light on the UK General Election appeared first on British Polling Council.

Jane takes over the role from Professor Sir John Curtice, who has served as BPC President since 2008. The members of the British Polling Council would like to thank John for his stewardship of the BPC over a 16-year period which has witnessed four general elections, the Scotland and Brexit referendums and many local, regional and national campaigns.

Jane Green is Professor of Political Science and British Politics in the Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Oxford, and a Professorial Fellow of Nuffield College, where she is the Director of the Nuffield Politics Research Centre. She has been a Co-Director of the British Election Study since 2013 and is a regular commentator across national media on the topics of British public opinion and elections, as well as serving as an Election Analyst for ITV News election programming since 2015. She is a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences, and was a member of the Polling Inquiry into the conduct of the 2015 opinion polls, established by the British Polling Council in collaboration with the Market Research Society.

As she takes over the role of President, Jane notes:

“I am very honoured to follow in the footsteps of the inimitable John Curtice. I, like all British Polling Council members, am very grateful to John for all his hard work and dedication. The British Polling Council performs an important role in promoting transparency in UK polling, and high standards of disclosure. As polls and polling come under increased scrutiny in this, the election year, it is a particular honour to support the British Polling Council’s work as the new President.”

Note to Editors:

The British Polling Council (BPC) is an association of polling organisations that publish polls and are committed to promoting transparency in polling.

The principal objective of the Council is to uphold standards of disclosure that ensure that consumers of survey results entering the public domain have an adequate basis for judging the reliability and validity of the results. By promoting high standards of disclosure, the Council aims to encourage the highest professional standards in public opinion polling and to advance the understanding and interpretation of poll results among politicians, the media and the general public. The BPC also provides interested parties with advice on best practice in reporting of polls, for example via our resources page on our website.

Full details of our remit and activities can be found at www.britishpollingcouncil.org

For more information, please contact: Nick Moon, BPC Secretary: nickmoon500@gmail.com

The post New President For The British Polling Council appeared first on British Polling Council.

There has been some controversy about the identity of the organisation that commissioned a recent YouGov MRP poll, the first results from which were published in The Daily Telegraph on 15 January. The organisation in question is the Conservative Britain Alliance.

Inter alia, the British Polling Council rules on disclosure state that:

All data and research findings made on the basis of social or political polls conducted in the United Kingdom by member organisations that enter the public domain, must include reference to the following:

• Client commissioning the survey;

This information, together with a range of other requirements about how a poll has been conducted and the details of the results are required to be posted on a member company’s website within two working days of initial publication.

In the case of this poll, extensive information was published on YouGov’s website on 15 January, and further information, as relevant, has been posted as further results from the poll have been published subsequently.

The BPC are aware that the Conservative Britain Alliance has not hitherto had any public profile, does not have a website, and is not known to be registered with, for example, Companies House, the Electoral Commission, or the Charities Commission.

However, the BPC have been advised that this is the organisation that was responsible for commissioning the poll, and that therefore there is no reason at present to believe that YouGov have not met their obligations under its rules. It is of course possible for any group of citizens to create a club, society or organisation whose activities do not require it to be registered with any body and which decides not to have a presence on the web.

The BPC would, of course, have no objection if further information about the commissioning organisation were to be made public, but this lies beyond its remit. Meanwhile, as is continually the case, the Council will be alive to identifying any lessons for its work that may be thought to arise from this incident.

The post YouGov MRP poll for Conservative Britain Alliance appeared first on British Polling Council.

By promoting high standards of disclosure, the BPC aims to encourage the highest professional standards in public opinion polling and to advance the understanding and interpretation of poll results among politicians, the media and the general public.

This role will, of course, be particularly important in the run-up to the general election, due to take place later this year.

However, it should be made clear that the BPC is neither an arbiter nor a guarantee of quality of polling. Our remit is solely to ensure transparency.

It is made very clear to BPC members that they are not allowed to suggest that their membership is any way a badge of quality.

Similarly, it is entirely inappropriate for anyone involved in the reporting of the results of polls and surveys to stipulate that they will only report the results and surveys conducted by organisations that are members of the BPC.

In particular, it should be noted that only organisations conducting social or political surveys are eligible for BPC membership, and, consequently, the vast majority of organisations conducting commercial market research surveys are not eligible for BPC membership.

The post British Polling Council Statement on Reporting of Polls and Surveys appeared first on British Polling Council.

You can read the British Polling Council’s submission here

The post Consultation on the future of population and migration statistics in England and Wales appeared first on British Polling Council.

We define as a “final poll” one that conducted at least some of its fieldwork on or after the Monday before the election.

Scottish Parliament

Voters were given two ballot papers – one for their local constituency MSP, the other for a party list. Five final polls were conducted and their estimates of both the constituency and list vote are shown below. The tables also compare the average of the polls with the eventual outcome.

Constituency Vote

The average estimate of the five polls is within a point of the final outcome for all of the parties, making it a very creditable overall performance.

List Vote

The estimates of the list vote were slightly less accurate, with most polls underestimating SNP support and overestimating that of the Greens, but otherwise the average estimate was again no more than a point adrift of the final outcome.

The figures for two other polling companies whose last poll was completed before the Monday before polling day are shown below.

Constituency Vote

List Vote

Welsh Senedd

Voters were again presented with both a constituency and a list ballot paper. Two final polls of voting intentions were conducted.

Constituency Vote

List Vote

While very close for Plaid Cymru, the Conservatives and the Greens, both polls underestimated the level of Labour and Liberal Democrat support, and overestimated that for Others on the constituency ballot and the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party in particular on the list.

London Mayor

Four final polls of the contest to be Mayor of London were conducted. The table shows their estimate of the first preference vote.

These polls were less accurate than those in Scotland and Wales. Although the average figure for the Greens was almost spot on, as was the estimate for combined tally of minor parties and independents, the polls overestimated the Labour and Liberal Democrat vote, and heavily underestimated the Conservatives.

The post Accuracy of Polls in the 2021 Devolved and London Mayoral Elections appeared first on British Polling Council.

The latest report of the House of Lords Liaison Committee: “The Politics of Polling: an update” was published on 21 December 2020, and can be accessed here: https://committees.parliament.uk/publications/4106/documents/40691/default/

On 28^th October, British Polling Council President Professor Sir John Curtice gave oral evidence to the House of Lords Select Committee on Political Polling and Digital Media.  You can watch proceedings of the Liaison Committee here on at the “Parliament Live” TV channel.

More details on the work on the Committee can be found at The politics of polling – Summary.

The British Polling Council’s response to the Committee’s 2018 report can be found at British Polling Council Welcomes Lords Committee Report on Polling.

The post House of Lords Committee on Political Polling and Digital Media appeared first on British Polling Council.

This publication has been designed to provide practical guidance for anyone unfamiliar with polls who finds themselves charged with interpreting and writing up an opinion poll in today’s media environment.

It forms part of the British Polling Council’s response to the recommendations of the House of Lords Select Committee on Political Polling and Digital Media.

The document has been developed as a “guided tour” of the key points to bear in mind when working with opinion poll data. Its contents include:

• An overview on how polls are conducted, including what to look out for when judging whether the sample is representative.
• Advice on how to evaluate the questions covered in an opinion poll. For example: are they written in everyday language? Do the questions lead the respondent?
• Guidance on how to interpret the results of polls, including key dos and don’ts when it comes to looking at sub-samples (such as differences by age) or describing changes over time.

The resource has been developed to complement the existing materials available to practitioners and users of opinion polls, including this detailed guide developed by the press regulator IMPRESS and the Market Research Society.

The Quick Guide for Journalists is available on the BPC website (Opinion Polls: Guidance for Journalists), alongside a video briefing with the President of the British Polling Council, Professor Sir John Curtice.

Commenting on the launch of the Guide, Professor Curtice says: “In its report, the House of Lords committee expressed a number of concerns about how the media report polls. Our guide is intended to help address some of these concerns by providing a quick five-minute accessible introduction to polls. It describes both the strengths and the limits of polls, outlines five key questions that should be asked of any poll, and identifies the major potential pitfalls to avoid in writing a poll story. We hope that it will help journalists in newsdesks up and down the country report polls in a way that their audience finds both interesting and informative.”

The post A Guide for Journalists to the Reporting of Opinion Polls? appeared first on British Polling Council.