The Performance of the Polls in the 2024 General Election

The polls told the story of the election campaign, including the prospect of a Labour landslide and the rise of Reform UK as a serious electoral force.

As the table below shows, the long-term tendency for the final polls to over-state Labour and under-state Conservative support remains in play. 

For the each of the remaining parties, the average error across the polling organisations are within 2 points.

Savanta2039105179Online2,1012–3 Jul
We Think2341117154Online1,2102–3 Jul
JL Partners2338135173Online2,0052–3 Jul
Survation2038127176Telephone1,6791–3 Jul
Norstat2437116166Online3,1341–3 Jul
Opinium2141117173Online2,2191–3 Jul
Ipsos19371191510Telephone2,0761–3 Jul
Deltapoll2239107175Online1,73729 Jun – 3 Jul
People Polling1636109209Online1,2602 July
Whitestone Insight2138107186Online2,0081–2 Jul
BMG2239117166Online1,85430 Jun – 2 Jul
Techne2140116166Online5,50328 Jun – 2 Jul
Redfield & Wilton2241106165Online20,00028 Jun – 2 Jul
YouGov2239127156Online47,75119 Jun – 2 Jul
Verian2136137167Online2,13528 Jun – 1 Jul
More in Common2439125156Online13,55624 Jun-1 Jul
Focaldata2340125164Online36,72610 Jun – 1 Jul
Stonehaven2439125156Online5,00028-30 Jun
Result24.4 34.712.56.9 14.76.8
Difference-2.84.0-1.3-0.4 1.6-0.9

MRP overview

This election saw the publication of a series of seat projections based on MRP analysis techniques. Here we set out the final projections released by BPC members, covering all those using survey data with fieldwork running into the last five days of the campaign.

YouGov102431721833219 Jun- 2 Jul42,758
More in Common126430521622124 Jun – 2 Jul13,556
JL Partners111442581531121 Jun – 2 Jul16,334
Survation684705914415315 Jun – 3 Jul34,558
Focaldata108444571522110 Jun – 1 Jul36,726
Stonehaven115420672242128 May – 30 Jun 14,400
Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now78453671937314 Jun – 3 Jul 19,393