Category Archives: Event

Can We Believe The Polls Next Time?

Event

A British Polling Council Seminar on developments in opinion polling

2 November 2022
1.30-5pm
St Matthew’s House & Conference Centre, 20 Great Peter Street, Westminster SW1P 2BU

Can We Believe The Polls Next Time?

It is now nearly three years since Boris Johnson won an 80-seat majority at the 2019 General Election. The intervening period has seen Britain leave the European Union, undergo the challenges of the coronavirus pandemic and, just a few weeks ago, replace its Prime Minister.

With the next election now closer than the last, the British Polling Council is holding a special seminar to explore the latest developments in opinion polling.

The programme is designed for anyone interested in understanding and using opinion polls: market researchers, academics, journalists, party organisations – and of course the public at large.

On the agenda: 

  • Lessons from the 2019 General Election
  • The new companies on the British polling scene
  • Developments in MRP polling
  • New analysis strategies
  • Panel discussion on The State of Polling Today

Our speakers include:

  • Professor Sir John Curtice, President of the British Polling Council
  • Gideon Skinner (Ipsos)
  • Adam Drummond (Opinium)
  • Chris  Holbrook (Find Out Now) 
  • Erik Larsen, People Polling 
  • Michela Morizzo, Techne 
  • Professor Ben Lauderdale (University College London)  
  • Martin Baxter (Electoral Calculus) 
  • Professor Paula Surridge (University of Bristol)
  • Professor Patrick Sturgis (London School of Economics)
  • Dr Mark Pack, President of the Liberal Democrats and author of Polling Unpacked

Chair: Jane Frost CBE, Chief Executive of the Market Research Society

Registration starts from 1.30pm, with presentations starting at 2pm.

The seminar will conclude with a drinks reception at 5pm.

We do hope you will be able to join us.  

Register Here:

Taking the Electoral Pulse Tickets, Wed 2 Nov 2022 at 13:30 | Eventbrite

Opinion Polling in the EU Referendum: Challenges and Lessons

Event,

Thursday 8th December, 1300-1700, Royal Statistical Society, London

Please join us for this event, jointly organised by the National Centre for Research Methods, British Polling Council and Market Research Society.

Register for this free event at: Eventbrite

DESCRIPTION

This event is jointly organised by the National Centre for Research Methods, British Polling Council and Market Research Society.

The referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union presented the opinion polls with a formidable challenge. Support for Remain and Leave crossed party lines. Rather than a debate between left and right, opinions reflected a division between social liberals and social conservatives. Even if the polls had overcome the difficulties that had beset them in 2015 – and that appeared to be still a work in progress – there was no guarantee that methods that had been honed to estimate party support in a general election would work effectively in this seemingly very different environment.

As a result, the campaign was marked by a lively debate about polling methodology, and significant methodological experimentation and adaptation by polling companies. In the event the final polls correctly indicated that the result would be close, but for the most part, incorrectly indicated that Remain would be the most likely winner.

With speakers from the polling companies and members of the BPC/MRS inquiry into the performance of the polls in the 2015 election, this seminar features presentations of how the polling companies set about their task and independent evaluations of the methodology that they used. Its aim is to identify the key lessons to be learned from the referendum for the future of opinion polling.

AGENDA

13.00Registration opens
13.30Welcome from Jane Frost (Market Research Society)
13.35Introduction from the Chair: Sharon Witherspoon MBE (Academy of Social Sciences)
13.40Polling in the EU Referendum: an overview, John Curtice (British Polling Council & University of Strathclyde)
14.05The challenges of polling by phone in the EU Referendum, Ben Page (Ipsos-MORI)
14.20The challenges of polling via the internet in the EU Referendum, Adrian Drummond (Opinium)
14.35Discussion and Q&A
15.00Tea & Coffee
15.20Sampling and mode of interview, Patrick Sturgis(NCRM, University of Southampton
15.45Treatment of don’t knows and turnout weighting, Stephen Fisher (University of Oxford)
16.10The effect of methodological adjustments during the campaign, Will Jennings ( University of Southampton)
16.35Discussion and Q&A
17.00Close