Tag Archives: 2024

The Performance of the Polls in the 2024 General Election

The polls told the story of the election campaign, including the prospect of a Labour landslide and the rise of Reform UK as a serious electoral force.

As the table below shows, the long-term tendency for the final polls to over-state Labour and under-state Conservative support remains in play. 

For the each of the remaining parties, the average error across the polling organisations are within 2 points.

Savanta2039105179Online2,1012–3 Jul
We Think2341117154Online1,2102–3 Jul
JL Partners2338135173Online2,0052–3 Jul
Survation2038127176Telephone1,6791–3 Jul
Norstat2437116166Online3,1341–3 Jul
Opinium2141117173Online2,2191–3 Jul
Ipsos19371191510Telephone2,0761–3 Jul
Deltapoll2239107175Online1,73729 Jun – 3 Jul
People Polling1636109209Online1,2602 July
Whitestone Insight2138107186Online2,0081–2 Jul
BMG2239117166Online1,85430 Jun – 2 Jul
Techne2140116166Online5,50328 Jun – 2 Jul
Redfield & Wilton2241106165Online20,00028 Jun – 2 Jul
YouGov2239127156Online47,75119 Jun – 2 Jul
Verian2136137167Online2,13528 Jun – 1 Jul
More in Common2439125156Online13,55624 Jun-1 Jul
Focaldata2340125164Online36,72610 Jun – 1 Jul
Stonehaven2439125156Online5,00028-30 Jun
Result24.4 34.712.56.9 14.76.8
Difference-2.84.0-1.3-0.4 1.6-0.9

MRP overview

This election saw the publication of a series of seat projections based on MRP analysis techniques. Here we set out the final projections released by BPC members, covering all those using survey data with fieldwork running into the last five days of the campaign.

YouGov102431721833219 Jun- 2 Jul42,758
More in Common126430521622124 Jun – 2 Jul13,556
JL Partners111442581531121 Jun – 2 Jul16,334
Survation684705914415315 Jun – 3 Jul34,558
Focaldata108444571522110 Jun – 1 Jul36,726
Stonehaven115420672242128 May – 30 Jun 14,400
Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now78453671937314 Jun – 3 Jul 19,393

Shedding Light on the UK General Election

A London School of Economics/British Polling Council event

5th June 2024, Wolfson Theatre, LSE (Cheng Kin Ku Building: CKK location here)


Event Chair: Patrick Sturgis, LSE


Welcome from the Chair: Patrick Sturgis,
LSE Setting the Scene: Jane Green, BPC President


Chaired by Sara Hobolt, LSE
Can we Trust the Polls? Will Jennings, Southampton/Sky
Can we use random sampling methods for polling? Joel Wiliams, Verian
 John Curtice, University of Strathclyde
What do past trends tell us about the present? Holly Day, Ipsos

3.10: Questions to the Panel

3.30: Break


Chaired by Jane Green, BPC President
Projecting Seats – an MRP Roundtable: Damian Lyons-Lowe, Survation; Martin Baxter, Electoral Calculus; Callum Hunter, JL Partners; Patrick English, YouGov


Chaired by Patrick Sturgis, LSE
What about the Don’t Knows? Paula Surridge, University of Bristol
Tactical Voting: Stephen Fisher, University of Oxford
What Might Change? Luke Tryl, More in Common
Election Night and The Exit Poll: Jouni Kuha, LSE

5.30: Questions to Panel & closing comments by Patrick Sturgis and Jane Green

From 6.00: Reception

Annual General Meeting, 1st February 2024, 11.00

Savanta, 60 Great Portland St, London W1W 7RT, and also online,

In attendance

  • Professor Sir John Curtice – President
  • Professor Jane Green – President Elect
  • Simon Atkinson – Management Committee member
  • Nick Moon – Secretary/Treasurer
  • Tom Holford – Censuswide
  • Martin Boon – Deltapoll 
  • Lachlan Rurlander – Whitestone Insight
  • Chris Holbrook – Find Out Now 
  • Chris Hopkins – Savanta
  • Bill White – Lucid talk 
  • Philip von Scheltinga – Redford and Wilton

Attending online

  • Kingsley Woldegiorgis – Stonehaven
  • Alex Morrison – Observunt
  • Conleth Burns – More In Common
  • Martin Baxter – Electoral Calculus
  • Anthony Wells – YouGov
  • Ivor Knox – Norstat
  • Gregor Jackson – Walnut
  • Kieran Kumaria – Stack Strategy
  • Gideon Skinner – Ipsos
  • Robert Struthers – BMG
  • Seb Wilde – Public First
  • Johnny Heald – ORB
  • Tyron Surmon – More in Common
  • John Wright – Maru
  • Damian Lyons Lowe – Survation

1. Apologies for absence

None had been received

2. Minutes of the last AGM

These had already been approved by Members

3. Officers’ reports

  • Financial report

The financial position is very healthy, with income of £8,650 and expenditure of £4,289.59 leaving a healthy balance of £27,183.36. The Treasurer’s report was  received with no questions

  • Disclosure issues dealt with by the officers

There were no disclosure issues that hadn’t been immediately resolved

  • Membership applications dealt with by the officers

Five organisations had successfully applied to join during the year. Damian Lyons Lowe raised the issue of Members describing themselves as “accredited by the BPC” rather than as “members of the BPC”. This is inaccurate and it was agreed that all Members would be reminded not to use the words “accredited” or “approved”

  • Web and social media report

The BPC now has nearly 2000 followers on X. For the moment there are no plans to use other social media. It is policy not to enter into debates on X or to respond t posts. It was suggested that we should post a pinned comment saying the BPC doesn’t reply via X and people should write to us formally

4. President’s report 

In addition to his written report, the President said the BPC had felt obliged to respond to the debate following the recent YouGov MRP poll, and so put out press release saying YouGov hadn’t broken any rules.

In his valedictory remarks the President stressed that BPC has had to change and has done so successfully, and has a high reputation, underpinned by relatively little infrastructure.

5. Appointment of the officers

  • President

Professor Jane Green was proposed by Nick Moon and seconded by Simon Atkinson

  • Secretary/Treasurer

Nick Moon was proposed by Jane Green and seconded by Lochlan Rurlander

  • Management Committee member

Simon Atkinson was proposed by Jane Green and seconded by Martin Boon

6. Proposal for Early Careers Network (Paper) J

The new President began by saying that she thought the  event had gone very well, and invited comments on the paper. Johnny Heald agreed the event had been a success and said that ORB would be happy to support the development of the network, and to sponsor future events. It was agreed that the pre election seminar should be late June, with the Officers mandated to make arrangements alongside the Early Careers Group. LSE is to be approached as a potential venue again

7. Role of BPC in qualitative research 

Martin Boon raised the point that there was an increasing tendency for people to quote broad findings from focus groups, without any background information on methodology – how many groups, who with, when etc – and he was concerned that the BPC might be open to criticism over this. There was discussion of the pros and cons but a consensus emerged that qualitative research did not fall within the definition of “polling” and thus fell outside the BPC’s remit. It was agreed not to take the idea of legislating for qualitative work any further.  However, if members wish to raise this again in future, the President highlighted that they are, of course, very welcome to do so. Damian Lyons Lowe suggested adding something on the BPC website saying why focus groups were different from polls, and why focus groups are not in our remit. The Officers to suggest a form of wording.

8. Any Other Business 

Jane Green thanked Savanta for hosting the event.

Nick Moon proposed a vote of thanks to John Curtice for all his work over 16 years. He announced that by way of thanks a cordless strimmer (for the allotment) and a Royal Opera House voucher were on their way to him, and also presented him with an abacus inscribed “You can count on your friends from the BPC”.

Martin Baxter thanked all those members who had contributed to the submission on the Census.

New President For The British Polling Council

The British Polling Council is very pleased to announce that Professor Jane Green has agreed to become the new President of the organisation.

Jane takes over the role from Professor Sir John Curtice, who has served as BPC President since 2008. The members of the British Polling Council would like to thank John for his stewardship of the BPC over a 16-year period which has witnessed four general elections, the Scotland and Brexit referendums and many local, regional and national campaigns.

Jane Green is Professor of Political Science and British Politics in the Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Oxford, and a Professorial Fellow of Nuffield College, where she is the Director of the Nuffield Politics Research Centre. She has been a Co-Director of the British Election Study since 2013 and is a regular commentator across national media on the topics of British public opinion and elections, as well as serving as an Election Analyst for ITV News election programming since 2015. She is a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences and a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences, and was a member of the Polling Inquiry into the conduct of the 2015 opinion polls, established by the British Polling Council in collaboration with the Market Research Society.

As she takes over the role of President, Jane notes:

I am very honoured to follow in the footsteps of the inimitable John Curtice. I, like all British Polling Council members, am very grateful to John for all his hard work and dedication. The British Polling Council performs an important role in promoting transparency in UK polling, and high standards of disclosure. As polls and polling come under increased scrutiny in this, the election year, it is a particular honour to support the British Polling Council’s work as the new President.”

Note to Editors:

The British Polling Council (BPC) is an association of polling organisations that publish polls and are committed to promoting transparency in polling.

The principal objective of the Council is to uphold standards of disclosure that ensure that consumers of survey results entering the public domain have an adequate basis for judging the reliability and validity of the results. By promoting high standards of disclosure, the Council aims to encourage the highest professional standards in public opinion polling and to advance the understanding and interpretation of poll results among politicians, the media and the general public. The BPC also provides interested parties with advice on best practice in reporting of polls, for example via our resources page on our website.

Full details of our remit and activities can be found at www.britishpollingcouncil.org

For more information, please contact: Nick Moon, BPC Secretary: nickmoon500@gmail.com

YouGov MRP poll for Conservative Britain Alliance

There has been some controversy about the identity of the organisation that commissioned a recent YouGov MRP poll, the first results from which were published in The Daily Telegraph on 15 January. The organisation in question is the Conservative Britain Alliance.

Inter alia, the British Polling Council rules on disclosure state that:

All data and research findings made on the basis of social or political polls conducted in the United Kingdom by member organisations that enter the public domain, must include reference to the following:

  • Client commissioning the survey;

This information, together with a range of other requirements about how a poll has been conducted and the details of the results are required to be posted on a member company’s website within two working days of initial publication.

In the case of this poll, extensive information was published on YouGov’s website on 15 January, and further information, as relevant, has been posted as further results from the poll have been published subsequently.

The BPC are aware that the Conservative Britain Alliance has not hitherto had any public profile, does not have a website, and is not known to be registered with, for example, Companies House, the Electoral Commission, or the Charities Commission.

However, the BPC have been advised that this is the organisation that was responsible for commissioning the poll, and that therefore there is no reason at present to believe that YouGov have not met their obligations under its rules. It is of course possible for any group of citizens to create a club, society or organisation whose activities do not require it to be registered with any body and which decides not to have a presence on the web.

The BPC would, of course, have no objection if further information about the commissioning organisation were to be made public, but this lies beyond its remit. Meanwhile, as is continually the case, the Council will be alive to identifying any lessons for its work that may be thought to arise from this incident.

British Polling Council Statement on Reporting of Polls and Surveys

The British Polling Council was set up in 2004 to uphold standards of disclosure that ensure that consumers of survey results entering the public domain have an adequate basis for judging the reliability and validity of the results.

By promoting high standards of disclosure, the BPC aims to encourage the highest professional standards in public opinion polling and to advance the understanding and interpretation of poll results among politicians, the media and the general public.

This role will, of course, be particularly important in the run-up to the general election, due to take place later this year.

However, it should be made clear that the BPC is neither an arbiter nor a guarantee of quality of polling. Our remit is solely to ensure transparency.

It is made very clear to BPC members that they are not allowed to suggest that their membership is any way a badge of quality.

Similarly, it is entirely inappropriate for anyone involved in the reporting of the results of polls and surveys to stipulate that they will only report the results and surveys conducted by organisations that are members of the BPC.

In particular, it should be noted that only organisations conducting social or political surveys are eligible for BPC membership, and, consequently, the vast majority of organisations conducting commercial market research surveys are not eligible for BPC membership.