After the problems of 2015, and the need to deal with the issues raised by the subsequent Sturgis enquiry, the pollsters were inevitably going to be under considerable scrutiny in the 2017 election.
The polls proved very good at predicting the Conservative vote, with an average of the final polls being only 0.2% higher than the actual result. (The actual result shares are based on all seats except Kensington).
They did, however, prove much less good at predicting the Labour vote, with the pollsters’ average being 5.2% below Labour’s actual share. This is only the second election since 1987 when the pollsters have underestimated the Labour share.
The average poll figure for the Liberal Democrats was very close, being only 0.3% different from the result.
While the final polls were not ideal, the BPC does not feel there is a need for another formal inquiry; the detailed findings of the Sturgis review are available here and provide a reference point for understanding the issues and challenges. Instead all BPC members who produced final polls will produce a “lessons learned” report, and these will be presented at a conference before the end of this year.
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