Accuracy Of The Final 2005 Polls

6th May 2005

The table below shows the final polls and the estimates made of the outcome of the General Election by members of the British Polling Council (BPC).

Collectively, these polls are the most accurate predictions ever made of the outcome of any British General Election. As can be seen from the table no estimate was, on average, more than 1.5% adrift from the final outcome, and every individual estimate was within 2% of the result for each party.

  ICM Ipsos MORI NOP Populus YouGov Result
  % % % % % %
Labour 38 38 36 38 37 36
Conservatives 32 33 33 32 32 33
Liberal Democrats 22 23 23 21 24 23
Other Parties 8 6 9 9 7 8
Average Error 1% 1% 0.25% 1.5% 1%  

NOTE. Polls conducted wholly or partly since Monday 2nd have been included in the table. The accuracy of each estimate is shown by the use of average error, being the average of the percentage differences between these four estimates and the final result.

Contacts:-

  • Nick Sparrow (ICM) 020-7436 3114
  • Andrew Cooper (Populus) 020-7253 9465